Swine Flu Pandemic Will Give Employers Major Headaches
The Independentreports that the swine flu pandemic could leave the UK with 15-20% of its workforce sick at home at its peak this fall. Experts estimate that 50% of UK residents could fall ill from the h1n1 virus.
The letter followed an earlier warning from Sir Liam that millions of Britons could fall victim to swine flu in the coming months. Government officials admitted last night that illness rates from the virus could reach 50 per cent.
Primary care trusts are now being briefed to expect that the pandemic could affect as much as 40 per cent of the workforce before the end of the year, with many worried that there could be a surge of cases in the autumn, according to health industry sources.
The Department of Health sought to reassure the public last night. A spokesman said: "Previous pandemics have seen total illness levels of 25-35 per cent. So our plans are as robust as possible, we have based them on illness rates of 50 per cent, though we do not anticipate it being this high in the current pandemic. Based on this figure, the workforce could be reduced by 15-20 per cent at the pandemic's peak. In the unlikely event that every school closed, this could rise to 35 per cent." He said it was impossible to predict when the pandemic would peak, but added: "As part of ongoing planning, the NHS is being asked to ensure that antiviral collection points could, if needed, be put into action in a week."
Keen to avoid panic, the Government is careful to present official statistics showing "laboratory-confirmed" cases, which currently stand at 2,244. Yet the true scale of infections is far higher than headline figures suggest. The total number of cases either confirmed by laboratory tests or "clinically presumed" currently stands at 3,725.
Some of those employees will also need to be hospitalized and could be out of work for much longer than others. Some will also die from the virus. The swine flu has already been killing people in the 20s, 30s, 40s and 50s age groups. This trend is likely to continue. Even if the swine flu kills just 1 out of every 300 people infected, the total number killed is going to be very large if half of the UK's population is affected. The people dying from the virus are in a demographic that includes the majority of the working population. The article says 50% of UK's population could fall ill from the virus before the end of the year. The U.S. is likely to face a very similar health and productivity issue because of the pandemic.
You can find a long list of h1n1 swine flu resources here.
